A Theoretical Framework for Context­Sensitive Temporal Probability Model Construction with Application to Plan Projection


Liem Ngo Peter Haddawy James Helwig Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science University of Wisconsin­Milwaukee Milwaukee, WI 53201

Abstract

We define a context­sensitive temporal prob­ ability logic for representing classes of discrete­time temporal Bayesian networks. Context constraints allow inference to be focused on only the relevant portions of the probabilistic knowledge. We provide a declarative semantics for our language. We present a Bayesian network construction algorithm whose generated networks give sound and complete answers to queries. We use related concepts in logic programming to justify our approach. We have implemented a Bayesian network construction algorithm for a subset of the theory and demonstrate it's application to the problem of evaluating the effectiveness of treatments for acute cardiac conditions.